🧐 You’re Probably Overestimating Your Chances Why being on your… | Julia Kinner | 79 comments

🧐 You’re Probably Overestimating Your Chances
Why being on your consumer’s shortlist matters more than you think
 
« Our brains are not wired to accurately perceive probabilities.
We overestimate rare events and underestimate common ones. »
Daniel Kahneman
 
 
I came across a great illustration of this yesterday,
in an interview with a car manufacturer CMO.
They made following observations:
 
– Pre-purchase, car buyers have a 3-5 brand shortlist
– In 70–80% of cases, they buy from that list
– In 20-30% of cases, they buy other brands
 
However, the following comment struck me:
“If you’re not on the short-list, you have a 30% chance of being chosen.”
 
Really?
Looks high to me.
Let’s look at the numbers.
 
– We take a market with 20 brands.
– 3 brands on the short-list capture 70–80% of sales.
– The remaining 20-30% are split among ALL other 17 brands and their chance of being selected is roughly equivalent to their market share.
 
How does it look like in detail?

A. Shortlisted Brand
– Total probability of shortlisted brands: 70%
– Number of shortlisted brands: 3
– Each brand gets an equal share of the 70%
 
Probability of being chosen:*
70/3=23.3%

 
B. Not Shortlisted Brand
A non-shortlisted brand with 5% market share captures 5% of the remaining 30% of purchases.
 
Probability of being chosen:
5%×30%=1.5%

 
That’s a massive difference.
Being outside the consideration set means you’re left with a fraction of the remaining 20-30% that is roughly equivalent to your market share.

 
THE MISCONCEPTION
The misconception comes from thinking that all brands outside the shortlist have a direct shot at the remaining 30%. In reality, your market share dictates how much of the 30% you can realistically capture.

 
* 🧐 Is It Fair to Assume All Shortlisted Brands Have the Same Chance?
The assumption that each brand on the shortlist gets an equal share seems reasonable, but is not always accurate:
– If a brand dominates in visibility/trust, it has an advantage
– Ad campaigns or discounts can skew choice
– Habitual purchases might have a strong default

 
👉 Why This Matters for Marketers and Business Leaders
If your brand isn’t on the consumer’s shortlist before they enter the market, you’re competing for crumbles.

This means:
– Brand awareness and mental availability are key
– You need to be in their mind before they start shopping
– Being « discovered » at the last minute is unlikely

♻️ Your network appreciates a repost

—

I’m Julia Kinner
My consulting firm JK & Associates SA focuses on growth strategy and execution for digital products and services.

—

👉 Your aren’t subsribed to our newsletter yet?
Join 2’500 executives that read the « D2C CEO »
https://lnkd.in/efyXJdge